I became passionate about the visual representation of price movement to identify trends from 1990, started a journey with manual charts and imported books. From my early learning of the Dow theory and momentum trading that were great to follow trends but not best at identifying trend changes or false signals. From 1994-1997 my exposure to fundamental and balance sheet research brought out the gaps between value and trend that needed to be filled. I started work with Dalal street Journal and the use Metastock since then to date for EOD analysis
In 1999 I introduced myself to Elliott Wave analysis and that changed everything. The strike rates and accuracy moved up considerably in trading and forecasts. Elliott Waves [EW] capture societal trends and the points of change in the mass public mood. It is the only technical tool that has forecasting capability v/s other tools that are trend following in nature. It is not the stand alone use of EW but the combination with all that TA offers
I started to read about the Kondratieff cycle in 1997 but did not understand how to measure it and the key components of the cycle till 2007. I also had doubts about where India stood due to lack of historical data. I finally put together backdated Indian economic data to write about “India’s Economic Winter” in 2009.
Similarly with the start of the 2001 it was an obvious value buy market, but was a great point of learning the conjunction of wave structures with classical fundamental ratings of companies. The standards used by the industry were telling of their status on the longer term horizon. The life cycle of a company thus coincides with the wave structure of stock within a cycle degree move. The performance of the forecasts made back then give me great confidence in the “Value wave model”
Starting 2000, I started publishing my views and opinions from the Blog “Indiacharts” and detailed the above theories to readers finally over a Google group in 2007, building an archive of the posts on the web only after 2013.
2001 I Joined Sharekhan at near the end of the Y2K bear market and called the coming 10 year bull market in stocks after Sept 2001 in economy stocks. Have spent the last 19 years in Multiple roles from Analyst to Head of Research and Fund manager at Sharekhan.
Starting 2006 I launched a long short fund at Sharekhan that used the futures and options and cash market to develop unique models of market positioning for different market types. Using automated models and managed futures methods, on zero leverage as allowed by PMS guidelines. These are designed to work best in volatile markets so clearly 2013-2017 was challenging, but volatility is coming back big time. We live in interesting times again.